Level 1 — Absolute Beginner

In the United States, people vote on Tuesday 3 November. They choose new members of Congress. Congress makes the laws.

Many people do not wait for Tuesday. They vote early. More than 43 million people have already voted. That is a lot more than four years ago.

People can vote early in two ways. They can go to a voting place early. Or they can send their vote by post.

One famous early voter is Pope Leo XIV. He was born in Chicago. He is American, so he can vote. He sent his vote by post.

vote

To choose a person or an idea in an election.

election

A time when people choose their leaders by voting.

early

Before the usual time.

million

A very big number. One thousand thousands.

law

A rule that everyone in a country must follow.

post

The system that sends letters. Also called mail.

born

When your life began.

famous

Known by very many people.

Level 2 — Elementary

Americans will elect a new Congress on Tuesday 3 November. These elections happen in the middle of a presidential term, so they are called midterms. An analysis by the Associated Press, released on Friday 30 October, found that more than 43 million people had already voted early in person or returned a mail ballot.

That figure is nearly 10 million higher than at the same point before the 2022 midterms. In Texas, more than 6.3 million people had voted early by Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same stage in 2022, an increase of 50 percent. In Georgia, more than 2.5 million ballots had been cast by Friday morning, already more than the whole 2022 early voting period.

Early voting numbers do not reveal who is winning, because nobody counts the votes until Election Day. Opinion polls do offer a guide. The RealClearPolling average of the national congressional ballot puts Democrats on 51.4 percent and Republicans on 43.2 percent.

One early voter attracted particular attention. The Vatican confirmed on Friday that Pope Leo XIV had submitted a mail ballot in Chicago, the city where he was born, making him the first pontiff to vote in a United States general election. The Vatican press office said he had exercised his right to vote as a United States citizen, but did not say which candidates he chose.

elect

To choose someone for an official position by voting.

midterms

US elections held halfway through a president's four year term.

ballot

The paper or form on which a person records a vote.

analysis

A careful study of information in order to understand it.

opinion poll

A survey that asks people what they think or how they will vote.

average

A single figure found by combining several numbers.

pontiff

Another word for the Pope.

citizen

A person who legally belongs to a country.

Level 3 — Intermediate

With three days remaining before Americans elect a new Congress on Tuesday 3 November, the most striking number of the campaign is one that reveals nothing about the outcome. An Associated Press analysis released on Friday 30 October found that more than 43 million people had already voted in person or returned a mail ballot, roughly 10 million more than at the equivalent moment in 2022. Turnout data of this kind records enthusiasm, not preference, and nobody will know what it means until the counting begins.

The regional pattern is nonetheless remarkable. In Texas more than 6.3 million ballots had been cast early by Wednesday, against 4.2 million at the same stage four years ago, a rise of 50 percent. Georgia had passed 2.5 million by Friday morning, exceeding the total for its entire 2022 early voting period with days still to run. The AP recorded increases of more than 30 percent in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas.

Polling points in one direction, with the usual caveats. The RealClearPolling average of the national congressional ballot shows Democrats at 51.4 percent against 43.2 percent for Republicans, a lead of 8.2 points. An Economist and YouGov survey released on Thursday found 44 percent of registered voters expecting Democrats to control the House against 31 percent expecting Republicans, with the Senate far closer at 39 to 36. Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball put it plainly: 'A big Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats.'

President Trump has been urging his supporters not to relax. At a rally in Daytona Beach, Florida on 30 October he told the crowd: 'You got to vote. Bad things happen when you get too confident, right? So let's pretend they're one point down.' He had cancelled weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa on Thursday, replacing them with nearly 20 telephone campaign events, before the White House confirmed that both would go ahead on Sunday after all. Individual races remain unsettled, including a Kansas Senate contest where an Emerson College poll gave Democrat Adam Hamilton 49 percent against Senator Roger Marshall's 45.

turnout

The number or proportion of people who actually vote in an election.

enthusiasm

Strong interest and eagerness about something.

preference

The choice someone would make if given options.

caveat

A warning or qualification that limits a statement.

registered voter

Someone officially recorded as eligible to vote.

generic ballot

A poll asking which party people will vote for, without naming candidates.

flip

In politics, to change from being controlled by one party to the other.

rally

A large public meeting held to support a person or cause.

Level 4 — Advanced

Three days out from the midterm elections of Tuesday 3 November, the headline statistic is also the least interpretable. An Associated Press analysis published on Friday 30 October established that more than 43 million Americans had voted in person or returned mail ballots, some 10 million above the comparable point in the 2022 cycle. Early turnout is a measure of intensity rather than intention, and both parties have learned to read it selectively. The honest position is that it records how many people have voted, and nothing whatsoever about whom they chose.

The geographic distribution does invite inference, if cautiously. Texas had logged more than 6.3 million early ballots by Wednesday against 4.2 million at the same stage in 2022, a 50 percent increase; Georgia surpassed 2.5 million by Friday morning, eclipsing its entire 2022 early voting total with days remaining; and the AP registered rises exceeding 30 percent in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas. A surge concentrated in states with competitive Senate races is at least consistent with high stakes mobilisation on both sides, which is why it resolves very little.

The polling, by contrast, is unambiguous in direction if not in magnitude. RealClearPolling's national congressional ballot average has Democrats at 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent for Republicans, a margin of 8.2 points that would, on historical precedent, deliver the House comfortably. An Economist and YouGov survey released Thursday found 44 percent of registered voters anticipating Democratic control of the House against 31 percent for Republicans, while the Senate expectation narrowed to 39 against 36, a reflection of the chamber's unforgiving map. Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball offered the conventional reading: 'A big Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats.' Seven Senate seats remain genuine toss-ups, among them an Alaska contest complicated by two candidates sharing the name Dan Sullivan, a dispute that has drawn legal action from the Department of Justice.

President Trump's closing argument has been an appeal against complacency. 'You got to vote. Bad things happen when you get too confident, right? So let's pretend they're one point down,' he told a crowd in Daytona Beach on 30 October. His weekend schedule wobbled accordingly: rallies in Kansas and Iowa were cancelled on Thursday in favour of nearly 20 telephone events, then reinstated for Sunday by the White House. The campaign's most quietly extraordinary footnote belongs elsewhere. The Vatican confirmed on Friday that Pope Leo XIV had returned a mail ballot in Chicago, his birthplace, becoming the first pontiff to vote in a United States general election. He requested the ballot on 3 October, ten days before surgery for lung cancer, and left hospital on 17 October. The press office noted that he had exercised his right to vote as a United States citizen and declined, pointedly, to say for whom.

interpretable

Able to be explained or given a clear meaning.