Level 1 — Absolute Beginner
Scientists have found a new way to guess how strong the Sun's storms will be years before they happen.
The Sun has cycles that last about 11 years. During each cycle, the Sun becomes more and less active.
The scientists found a special moment called a 'switch-off' point. It marks when the Sun's most violent weather stops.
By counting sunspots at this switch-off moment, scientists can guess how strong the next solar cycle will be, up to seven years early.
- scientist
- a person who studies and researches how the natural world works
- guess
- to form an idea about something without being completely sure
- cycle
- a series of events that happen again and again in the same order
- active
- full of energy and action
- violent
- involving great force or strong, sudden movements
- weather
- the condition of the atmosphere, including storms, wind, and temperature
- moment
- a very short period of time
- sunspot
- a dark, cooler area that appears on the surface of the Sun
Level 2 — Elementary
Scientists at NASA's COFFIES Science Center have discovered a previously hidden turning point in the Sun's roughly 11-year activity cycle that could let researchers predict future solar storms years earlier than ever before.
The newly identified 'switch-off' point marks the moment when the Sun's most violent space weather abruptly comes to an end, shifting the Sun toward its calmer phase.
By counting the number of sunspots present at this switch-off stage, scientists can estimate how strong the following solar cycle will be, offering forecasts up to seven years before that cycle reaches its peak.
The method already proved its worth by correctly predicting that the current solar cycle, Cycle 25, would be stronger than many earlier forecasts suggested, a prediction later confirmed by unusually vivid auroral displays.
- previously
- before now, at an earlier time
- turning point
- a moment when an important change happens
- abruptly
- suddenly and without warning
- phase
- a distinct stage in a process of change or development
- estimate
- to roughly calculate or judge the value, size, or strength of something
- forecast
- a prediction of what will happen in the future, especially about weather
- peak
- the highest or strongest point of something
- auroral
- relating to the aurora, colorful lights sometimes seen in the night sky near the poles
Level 3 — Intermediate
Researchers at NASA's COFFIES Science Center have identified a previously unrecognized turning point within the Sun's approximately 11-year activity cycle, a discovery that could allow forecasters to estimate the strength of future solar cycles years before they reach maximum intensity.
This newly characterized 'switch-off' point marks the juncture at which the Sun's most violent space weather activity abruptly subsides, transitioning the star toward a quieter phase of its cycle.
By quantifying the residual sunspot activity present at this switch-off stage, the research team can extrapolate the likely strength of the subsequent cycle, extending forecasting horizons to as much as seven years before that cycle's peak, far earlier than conventional prediction methods allow.
The technique has already demonstrated practical value, correctly anticipating that Solar Cycle 25 would prove stronger than many contemporaneous forecasts indicated, a call later borne out by an unusually active run of auroral displays in recent years.
- juncture
- a particular point in events or circumstances
- subside
- to become gradually less intense
- transition
- to change or pass from one state or stage to another
- quantify
- to express or measure something as a number
- residual
- remaining after most of something has gone or been used
- extrapolate
- to estimate or conclude something by extending known information
- horizon
- the limit of a person's knowledge, experience, or interest, or a future time frame
- conventional
- based on what is generally done or believed, traditional
Level 4 — Advanced
Researchers affiliated with NASA's COFFIES Science Center have identified a previously unrecognized inflection point within the Sun's approximately 11-year activity cycle, a discovery poised to extend how far in advance forecasters can estimate the intensity of forthcoming solar cycles.
This newly characterized 'switch-off' juncture marks the moment at which the Sun's most violent space weather activity abruptly subsides, ushering the star into a comparatively quiescent phase of its periodic cycle.
By quantifying the residual sunspot activity present at this switch-off stage, the research team can extrapolate the probable magnitude of the subsequent cycle, extending forecasting horizons to as much as seven years before that cycle's climax, a substantial improvement over conventional prediction methodologies.
The technique has already proven its practical merit, having correctly anticipated that Solar Cycle 25 would prove more intense than many contemporaneous forecasts indicated, a call subsequently vindicated by an unusually vigorous run of auroral displays, though researchers caution that early projections for the upcoming Cycle 26 suggest a comparatively moderate cycle pending confirmation over the next two years.
- inflection point
- a point at which a significant change occurs, often altering the direction of a trend
- quiescent
- in a state of rest or inactivity
- periodic
- occurring or recurring at regular intervals
- magnitude
- the great size, extent, or intensity of something
- climax
- the most intense, exciting, or important point of something
- methodology
- a system of methods used in a particular field of study
- vindicate
- to show that a belief or claim was correct after doubt or criticism
- vigorous
- strong, energetic, and full of activity
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