Level 1 - Absolute Beginner

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage. Many big ships pass through it. The ships carry oil to other countries.

Iran is attacking some of these ships. There were five attacks in only two days. This is the highest number since the war started.

Why does Iran do this? Officials say Iran wants oil to stay expensive. There is an election in the United States in November.

The ships are now in danger. The navy says the danger is very high. Iran says it may stop all ships soon.

strait

A narrow passage of sea between two pieces of land.

ship

A large boat that carries goods or people.

oil

A thick liquid from under the ground, used for fuel.

attack

To use violence against someone or something.

war

Fighting between two or more countries.

election

When people vote to choose their leaders.

danger

The chance that something bad will happen.

navy

The part of a country's army that fights at sea.

Level 2 - Elementary

Two senior Iranian officials have told the news agency Reuters something important. About ten days ago, Iran's leaders approved a new plan to attack more ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The goal is to keep the price of oil high until the American elections in November.

One official explained the thinking clearly. He said the aim is to stop the United States and its allies from bringing oil prices down. Another said that every time prices start to fall, Iran will push them back up.

The attacks are increasing. In the 48 hours before the report, there were at least five incidents involving tankers and other commercial ships, including drone attacks. Experts say this is the highest level since the war began in February.

Iran also wants to attack ships further away, in the Gulf of Oman and beyond. Ships have already been targeted near Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about one fifth of the world's oil and gas trade, so the whole world feels the effect.

senior

Having a high rank or position.

official

A person with an important job in a government.

news agency

A company that collects news and sells it to newspapers and TV.

approve

To officially agree to something.

ally

A country that helps and supports another country.

tanker

A large ship built to carry oil or gas.

drone

An aircraft with no pilot inside, controlled from a distance.

incident

An event, usually an unpleasant or dangerous one.

Level 3 - Intermediate

Iran has deliberately turned the world's most important oil chokepoint into an instrument of American electoral politics. Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that the leadership approved a shift in tactics roughly ten days ago, increasing both the frequency and the type of attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with the explicit aim of keeping oil prices elevated through the November midterm elections.

The officials were unusually blunt about the strategy. One said the purpose is to frustrate efforts by the United States and its allies to bring down global oil prices. Another put it more vividly, saying that just when Washington believes prices are about to fall, Tehran will push them away from that point. A third claim was starker still: that Iran is moving toward barring any vessel which violates its restrictions, and that complete closure is coming soon.

The operational picture supports the account. Maritime security sources and the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre logged at least five incidents involving tankers and other commercial vessels, including drone strikes, in a single 48-hour window, a rate matching the escalation seen on October 3 to 5 and the highest since the war began on February 28. The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Centre has rated the threat to merchant shipping in Hormuz as severe, its second-highest level, citing attacks, drone overflights, targeted surveillance and radio hailing of ships.

Tactics have adapted to losses. A US military official said that after American strikes destroyed much of Iran's coastal radar network, the Revolutionary Guard began using unarmed spotters in small boats to identify targets, including US naval vessels; last week US forces destroyed a dhow carrying such spotters, with no reported casualties. Iran is also preparing to extend operations into the Gulf of Oman and farther afield, and analysts say ships have already been attacked off Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. With the strait normally carrying about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, soaring insurance and freight costs are now as much of an obstacle to normal traffic as the attacks themselves.

chokepoint

A narrow route that traffic must pass through, easy to block.

frequency

How often something happens.

elevated

Higher than the usual level.

blunt

Saying something directly, without softening it.

vessel

A ship or large boat.

escalation

An increase in the intensity or seriousness of a conflict.

surveillance

Close watching of a person, place or vehicle.

freight

Goods carried by ship, aircraft or truck, or the cost of carrying them.

Level 4 - Advanced

There is a particular kind of candour that only appears when a government has decided deniability is no longer worth the trouble. Two senior Iranian officials, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, described a decision taken at the apex of the Islamic Republic's leadership roughly ten days ago: to alter both the tempo and the character of attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with the undisguised objective of holding global oil prices up until American voters go to the polls in November. The strait has been weaponised before. Rarely has it been aimed so precisely at an electorate.

The officials' formulations are worth preserving for their clarity. The aim, one said, is to frustrate efforts by the United States and its allies to bring down global oil prices; the other offered something closer to a doctrine of calibrated denial, promising that just as Washington approaches the point at which prices would fall, Tehran will push them away from it. A further assertion, that vessels violating Iranian restrictions will be barred outright and that complete closure is imminent, should be treated as intent rather than capability, though the distinction has been narrowing.

Independent data lends the claims uncomfortable weight. Maritime security sources and the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre recorded at least five incidents involving tankers and other merchant vessels, drone strikes among them, within a single 48-hour period, a cadence comparable to the escalation of October 3 to 5 and the most intense since hostilities opened on February 28. The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Centre now rates the threat to merchant shipping in Hormuz as severe, its second-highest designation, citing not only strikes but drone overflights, targeted surveillance and VHF hailing, the last of which signals an attempt to establish control rather than merely to disrupt.

What makes the campaign durable is its adaptation to attrition. With much of Iran's coastal radar destroyed by American strikes, the Revolutionary Guard has substituted unarmed spotters in small craft to cue targeting, including against US naval vessels, a low-technology workaround that is correspondingly difficult to eliminate; US forces destroyed one such dhow last week without casualties. Plans to extend operations into the Gulf of Oman and beyond, with ships already struck off Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, dilute the protective value of convoying through a single corridor. The economics compound the coercion: through a strait that ordinarily carries about a fifth of seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas, insurance and freight premiums have risen to a point where commercial caution now suppresses traffic more effectively than the attacks do. Against a war costing an estimated 3 billion dollars a month and a President who has said he will not strike Iran again before the vote, Tehran has identified an asymmetry it can exploit, and the shipping industry is paying for the discovery.

deniability

The ability to plausibly deny responsibility for an action.